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Trump tariffs could reduce NI exports to US by 15%, new research finds

July 22, 2026

New research commissioned by Northern Ireland's Department for the Economy indicates that President Trump's tariffs could reduce Northern Ireland's export growth to the United States by approximately 15%. The pharmaceutical industry would face the most severe consequences, with potential export reductions of 18% compared to a no-tariff scenario, particularly if temporary exemptions expire after 2029. The transport equipment sector, including aircraft parts manufacturing, could see exports decline by 14%.

Who is affected

  • Northern Ireland pharmaceutical manufacturers and exporters
  • Northern Ireland transport equipment sector (including aircraft parts manufacturers)
  • Northern Ireland's overall manufacturing industry
  • Workers employed in Northern Ireland's export sectors
  • Northern Ireland's Department for the Economy
  • Canadian exporters facing 50% tariffs on various goods
  • US consumers of generic drugs and Canadian products

What action is being taken

  • President Trump has imposed a 10% baseline tariff on most UK goods
  • Trump is imposing 50% tariffs on a wide range of Canadian imports
  • Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is standing ready to "intensify" trade talks with the US
  • UK-produced pharmaceuticals currently face a 0% rate under temporary exemptions

Why it matters

  • Northern Ireland is particularly vulnerable to global trade disruptions as a small, open economy with strong trading connections to both Britain and the European Union. The projected 15% reduction in export growth to the US and 0.4% decrease in economic growth potential could significantly impact employment and economic prosperity in the region. The pharmaceutical sector, which represents a major component of Northern Ireland's export economy, faces especially severe consequences if temporary tariff exemptions expire, threatening long-term manufacturing viability and jobs in this critical industry.

What's next

  • Trump's 50% tariffs on Canadian imports will take effect in 30 days
  • Trump warned that starting in 2028, he would impose 100% tariffs on generic drugs from countries without a US deal
  • Trump would double generic drug tariffs to 200% in 2029
  • Trade talks between Canada and the US are expected to intensify in the coming weeks
  • UK pharmaceutical temporary exemptions are set to potentially expire after 2029

Read full article from source: BBC